One of the main topics that Kadoron will attract practically every investor at the end of the year is the development of capital markets in the following year. How do analysts of brokerage companies see the development on the domestic stock exchange, who probably heard these questions most often?
How are experts two years on the development of the stock market (PSE), which is the heart of domestic investors to determine the best, what to expect from the year, how the value of new products traded on the stock exchange and what to see about the situation around primary issues, which are still one of the weaknesses. BCPP?
Petr Kalina, head of stock trading at RSJ Invest, Milan Vanek, chief analyst of Atlantik FT, Pavel Hadrouek, broker of Fio, Roman Kodra, chief broker of Patria, and Jan Prochzka, chief analyst of Cyrrus, answered their questions.
The first question concerned the evaluation of the development on the stock exchange crack last year and the evaluation of further development in the coming year.
Mr. Hadrouek answered clearly: “Like most foreign markets, the stock market has hit the growth trends of previous years. The dog spread the correction during the summer and autumn, the index is eclipsed by 16% since the end of the year. One big difference compared to the previous year is the bag. On the one hand, there are markets with growth of around + 40%, such as EZ, Unipetrol and CME. On the other hand, there were sharp declines in the form of action by Zentiva and Philip Morris. The actions of Erste and developerm did not work either. ”
Thus, according to Mr. Kalina, the growth of the PX stock index was caused by a large increase in the price of EZ’s shares, supported by the repurchase of its shares by the issuer. This year’s growth of the EZ event significantly increased the delivery of events of comparable companies such as RWE or E.ON. ”
Mr. Prochzka adds that the shares were supported sharply with the improving management and overall development of the energy sector, thanks to which they gave investors almost 50% and can be described as the driving force of the stock market and its biggest star this year. On the contrary, Erste Bank shares lagged, with the same weight in the index as EZ. Here, the development (-18%) was influenced by the market turbulence, which mainly affected financial stocks. Both of these difficulties characterize the general development in the market, of which these companies have been able to connect in some way with energy and commodities. Banks ranked among the losers this year. ”
According to Mr. Kodra Komern banka (+ 39%) and Telefonica (+ 18%), other titles that were in line with the performance of the stock market crackdown are. “According to them, the small shares of CETV (+ 39%) and Unipetrol (+ 41%) did not appreciate due to their share. The biggest brake was the shares of Erste Bank (-20%). The worst results were recorded by the shares of Philip Morris and Zentiva, when their shareholders drank almost 1/3 of the invested funds. ”
According to Mr. Kalina, it can be expected in the first year in a row, ”said the reduced contribution achieved by investors on the Czech stock market. Support for organic farming will be terminated and most other stocks are traded relatively well compared to the award-winning title of faster-growing entry economies. ”
Jan Prochzka continues in the first year of the “continuing nervous mood on the stock markets, which will be influenced mainly by the titles of financial institutions. These may affect the development, especially at the end of the year, but it will also depend on the attitude of central banks, which are able to significantly change the mood of the mood with their measures. Especially in the second half of the year, my situation is gradually calming down, and the whole market will continue to grow further, when a number of companies that have lost this year will catch up. ”
“For five years, the stock market will reschedule the development of foreign indexes,” thinks Mr. Hadrouek, and continues: We do not see an attractive investment complexity on the Czech market, but the portfolio should be Telefnica 02 shares. ”
Roman Kodra sees a similar view of the stock: “2008 will probably be the lowest year in the last 5 years, when at the end of 2007 corporate profits began to decline worldwide and volatility increased to its historically highest value. In the long run, Pesto should benefit from the shares of EZ, Telefonica O2 and Unipetrol. ”
According to us, we were interested in how the new values introduced and traded new products, such as certificates, warranties or futures, and their acceptance by investors.
According to Mr. Prochzka, “these are undoubtedly products that have a great future ahead of them. In Germany, there is an exponential growth, only in Czech conditions it still somehow doesn’t. Trade volumes are small, wide spreads and the product offer is not yet wide. First, at this point, we find the biggest disadvantage, because the derivatives market in the world has large-scale returns, the product on one underlying asset is so much that the issuers themselves have to undercut the investor and offer the best terms for each product. That’s the only thing that’s wrong here so far. ”
Mr. Vanek has a slightly different opinion: “I believe that the new products were received according to the rules. The interest is not significant regarding the total volume of the stock exchange (up to one 1% of the total volume of the stock exchange 0.2% in November), however, their progress is gradually being enforced. A similar development took place on the surrounding stock exchanges, due to the complexity of the listed product compared to the stock market. ”
Mr. Hadrouek gave me a similar opinion, according to him that I need new products on the stock exchange and in the near future also on RMS, so that investors can get used to them. Special certificates will be on the market, especially in retail stores. In neighboring Poland, their expansion lasted several years. Even so, we expected the volume of trade. ”
In the retail service, Mr. Kalina: “Turbo certificates have found popularity among retailers, who do not see the inconvenience in individual SPAD titles. However, the markets were so volatile this year that only a few people were able to leave you with these products. Futures trading has not developed in most of them, mainly because in the Czech Republic there are very few specialized traders with sufficient quality staff equipped for derivatives trading. ”
Mr. Kodra thinks that “changing products are an important source of investment, but because of its liquidity (usually one and three market makers), the traded volumes have not gained much ground. However, this may change in the next period, when the first high volatility in world markets allows to participate in the rapid change in sentiment, which is the first decision-making impulse for these speculative and hedging instruments. ”