It is less than two years since Hungary, due to the world financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund had to help with bankruptcy. And the problems are back. The two aunts Maar, who took out mortgages in a foreign currency, have great problems with fulfillment due to a weak forint. The country is making me again on the verge of bankruptcy.
Years ago, the Maai decided to take a risky step. Due to the high years of the Central Bank, they borrowed for a suitable year, primarily in French and thus in euros. Only the franc strengthens your forint sharply and Maarm is starting to break the mortgage inexpensively.
Abroad, 64 percent of all households who live in housing meet my mortgage. Companies are just a little better, of which 54 percent are companies in France and euros. The same problem exists in neighboring Poland, where mortgages in France have 700 thousand households and more than half of vry do not meet.
The main problems of the euro and the United States are mainly due to the sharp strengthening of the franc. Investors are looking for security, which includes the first stable Swiss name in addition to gold.
Gyorgy Barcza, the chief economist of the Hungarian bank K&H Bank, told the Financial Times that the government will have to deal with the problem if the forint exchange rate will be at the level of 230 forints per franc in the long run, where it is about msc.
|date||Short HUF / CHF|
|3. 1. 2011||223,72|
|1. 2. 2011||209,78|
|1. 3. 2011||210,14|
|1. 4. 2011||203,93|
|1. 5. 2011||204,91|
|1. 6. 2011||217,97|
|1. 7. 2011||215,21|
|1. 8. 2011||235,11|
|Zdroj: Maarsk centrln bank|
According to economist Next Finance Markta ichtaov, the problems with the fulfillment of loans of the main Hungarian banks, which have been involved in several financial crises since 1990, are causing problems. The Hungarians have foreign exchange in both foreign and domestic banks. ”The Hungarian banking sector is extremely weak. When households have problems with mortgage payments in French, they will not be able to meet even the defaults at domestic banks. This is a terrible wave of bankruptcy and a dream rating, ”explained ichtaov.
In particular, Hungarian banks would be helped by lowering their base rates so that their loans to households are affordable and they do not have to be borrowed abroad. Only because of the weakening forint can you expect the opposite. The rest of the year is one of the tools to prevent the weakening currency.
Maarsk crisis would weaken the crown
For several years, the Hungarian Central Bank has been holding one of the highest annual rates in Europe. The stock rate last increased by a quarter of a percentage point to six percent in January this year. For a comparison, the Czech National Bank has kept the rate at a record low of 0.75 percent since May last year.
However, the problems of Hungary should not affect the euro area and so the impact on the Czech Republic would be minimal. According to ichta, we would only honor them by weakening the crown.
“It would not be a major problem for the Czech Republic. Due to the competitiveness of the koruna, the koruna will strengthen sharply, even if the weakening, domestic exports will be rare, ”added ichtaov.