Wednesday May 25, 2022

The US is especially in recession, the dollar has reached an all-time low

Although the first thing about the EU is that the United States is likely to be in recession, the stock market has resisted without consequences. Investors look for which shares will pay the most in the long run. The dollar has fallen darkly to its historic bottom, while oil is the highest.

The US economy is currently highly likely to be in recession. Last year, there were public results from the US labor market, which showed that the US economy regularly lost 80,000 jobs, which is the biggest decline in five years, and moreover, it is a decline, which analysts did not expect.

The weakness of the US labor market has thus spread outside the financial and real estate sectors. This is the third decline in the number of jobs in the country, which is the most convincing evidence that the US economy has slipped into recession. Unemployment in the meantime rose to 5.1% in the meantime, from a standard of 4.8%. Bear Stearns Investment Economists have stated that such labor market developments have always been associated with a recession. The level of employment on temporary employment, which is the main indicator of the trend on the labor market, fell by 21 thousand in ordinary.

The stock remained calm
However, US stocks did not react to the first unfavorable labor market and showed a certain resilience in the real economy, when they closed the week last week according to the S&P 500 index with a sunny gain of 4.3%. Investments are thus starting to focus more on the time horizon and think about what actions could be most successful during the eventual recovery of the US economy in the second half of this year. So while the US economy is highly likely to be in recession, stock markets in the past market have sent some positive signals.

Economic research shows that the development of the stock market will increase the development of the real economy by about 6 months. Therefore, if we cannot make further sharp corrections in the stock markets, in the second half of the year the US economy could move further north.

Economists believe that sharply lowering rates by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will gradually bear fruit, and even though the US economy is likely to be in recession, it should be a very weak recession, they say. Coincide with the latest developments in the stock markets and with the Fed that the development of the US economy will improve in the second half of the year. Yields on US bonds fell compared to the previous week, which means that their prices have risen (prices and bond yields are moving in the opposite direction), and it seems that investors are paying a lot of attention to the bonds. Therefore salary: do not hop until the sand.

German shares fell the most, the stock market cracked the gain
US stocks weakened slightly in the first days of this week, as measured by the S&P 500 index by 1.9%. British stocks were at zero after medium trading, Germany weakened by 3%, French weakened by 1.1%, Japanese weakened by 1.2%. The stock exchange is recording a slight weekly profit of 0.5% after the middle trading session.

The dollar tm at a minimum, so the robbery broke the record
The dollar reached the historic low of the euro on Wednesday, when it weakened sharply to $ 1,586 per euro. On Wednesday at 21:00 the exchange rate was $ 1.582 per euro. The reason for the medium-term weakening of the dollar was the central decline in US stocks and a new oil price record, as traders expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to reach a full percentage point of 1.75% at its five-year meeting.

The Czech koruna is holding the dollar in a good trend this week, when on Wednesday the exchange rate was 15.86 crowns per dollar. At one euro, the koruna fell below the magical level of 25 crowns per euro on Monday, however, the koruna weakened on Wednesday and in the evening the exchange rate was 25.10 crowns per euro.

US light oil, which is traded in New York, set a new historical record on Wednesday at $ 112.21 per barrel. A new record was set by the North Sea Brent, which reached a level of $ 109.45 per barrel on Wednesday. The reason was the unexpected decline in oil supplies and oil stocks in the US. US oil reserves fell 3.1 million barrels to 316 million last week.

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